The Former Internet Economy?
Benjamin Petty
December 28, 2000
Layoffs in the so-called "dot-com" industry have been on the rise lately. Around 41,000 people were let go in 2000 from dot-coms. One out of every five dot-com companies have closed their doors (according to a Chicago outplacement firm). Stock prices have hit record lows for many companies that rely almost solely on the Internet for their revenue. Does this mean the Internet revolution is over? Hardly. It does, however, mean that businesses are figuring out what does and does not work on the Internet. We are finding that just having a brilliant, original idea, and lots of startup capital, doesn't necessarily mean instant success. We are also finding that just having a presence on the Internet won't perform miracles for most businesses, but it can help a company by allowing its customers to find instant information from them, rather than from their competitors.
Some of the so-called "winners" in the dot-com arena include Yahoo!, which stock-wise, peaked around January of 2000 around $250 per share-currently selling around $30. Verisign, Inc. has been another big winner in the Internet market, selling security services, including server certificates for secured and encrypted transactions, and recently acquiring Network Solutions, formerly the sole distributor of domain names. Verisign, Inc. peaked around February of 2000 around $250, currently trading around $80 per share. Oracle has been a winner from the Internet, actually keeping its hold on the NASDAQ. Oracle is the backbone of many web sites as the database running them. Another background winner in the Internet world is Cisco. Market research has found that approximately 80 percent of the Internet runs on Cisco hardware, an amazing feat considering the size of the global Internet. Other strong contenders in the Internet realm are Amazon.com, Ebay, Monster.com, CNet, America Online (which recently acquired Time-Warner), Buy.com, and more.
As for the volatility of the Internet-based stocks, Phillip "Pip" Coburn, 34, global technology strategist for UBS Warburg, says it well by saying "volatility is a unique and necessary condition for the creation of value" in the Internet economy. "Tech stocks are going to be volatile forever. When they stop being volatile, they stop being tech stocks. That's not bad, that's not good. It just is." What a true statement. The volatility of the Internet companies are what draw most investor's attention. They can make lots of money fast. As both the market and technology move quickly, investors' believe they have a better chance of making quick money, easily.
So we must ask ourselves, why do some well respected and established companies not measure up with some upstart companies in the Internet marketplace? The biggest reason is timing. Often, the traditional companies don't realize and see the potential for bringing their offerings to the Internet and are swallowed by those fresh-thinking companies who do. Once these companies decide to move to the Internet, they think of it as an additional store rather than an entirely new way of commerce, marketing, and overall line of thinking. Another major mistake is that many traditional businesses don't provide their e-commerce team with enough money and resources. This gives well-funded startups a strong edge over their competitors. Along these lines, management from traditional businesses that fail to see that there is such a thing as "Internet time," and it typically moves incredibly fast; much faster than the speed at which most large corporations run. Therefore, many of their own internal bureaucracies can have devastating consequences unless they allow their e-commerce management to operate under a different set of rules and regulations than the rest of the company--one that won't slow them down.
Is the future of the Internet going to sprout again into hundreds and thousands of dot-com startups with ridiculous startup capital? Probably not. There will always be investors out there searching for worthwhile investments, especially ones with potential quick returns, such as with dot-com startup companies. But with the knowledge we have now about what can and cannot work online, what business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) combinations work, and what concepts look great in a business plan, but not so great, or unnecessary to the target market and Wall Street.